Jazz Must Hit Home Run This Draft

The 2025 NBA Draft is a critical moment for the Utah Jazz, who are in the midst of a rebuild after trading away stars like Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. With a franchise-worst 17-65 record in the 2024-25 season, the Jazz secured a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick in the lottery, tying with the Washington Wizards and Charlotte Hornets for the best odds. This draft represents a pivotal opportunity to add a cornerstone player to a roster that, while featuring promising young pieces like Isaiah Collier, Kyle Filipowski and Walker Kessler, lacks a clear franchise leader. Here’s a breakdown of the draft’s importance and the implications of missing out on the top pick and Cooper Flagg.

Importance of the 2025 Draft for the Utah Jazz

1. Need for a Franchise Cornerstone: The Jazz have been searching for a transformative talent to anchor their rebuild. Their current core, including Markkanen (an All-Star but not a primary option), Kessler (a defensive anchor), and young guards like Keyonte George and Isaiah Collier, has potential but lacks a superstar to elevate the team into contention. The 2025 draft, with its top-heavy talent pool, offers a rare chance to land such a player.

2. Draft Assets and Flexibility: The Jazz have amassed an impressive collection of draft picks—18 over the next seven years, including 10 first-rounders. In 2025, they hold two first-round picks (their own, guaranteed top-five, and a top-10 protected pick from Minnesota) and two second-rounders (from Dallas and the Clippers). This stockpile gives them flexibility to either draft multiple players or package picks for trades, but the lottery pick is their best shot at a game-changer without depleting assets.

3. Fan and Market Dynamics: Utah is a small-market team where fan engagement is crucial. After a historically poor season and years of tanking, landing a high-profile prospect could re-energize the fanbase and signal progress in the rebuild. Former NBA All-Star DeMarcus Cousins emphasized this, noting that a player like Flagg could become a “hero” in Utah, fitting culturally and competitively.

4. Strategic Timing: The Jazz’s rebuild, now in its third year, is at a crossroads. They’ve avoided major win-now moves, focusing on youth development and draft positioning. A high pick in 2025 could accelerate their timeline, allowing them to pair a star prospect with Markkanen (if untraded) and Kessler to form a competitive core, or it could prompt further tanking if the pick underperforms expectations.

   
   

Is Missing the No. 1 Pick and Cooper Flagg a Bust?

Cooper Flagg, a 6’9” forward from Duke, is widely regarded as the consensus No. 1 pick due to his exceptional two-way versatility, high basketball IQ, and relentless motor. His freshman stats (19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 48.1% FG, 38.5% 3P) and accolades (Naismith Player of the Year, Final Four appearance) underscore his potential as a franchise-altering talent. Analysts compare him to Andrei Kirilenko but with a higher ceiling, possibly an All-Star or Hall of Famer. For the Jazz, Flagg would slot perfectly alongside Markkanen and Kessler, creating a formidable, versatile frontcourt.

However, missing out on Flagg does not necessarily doom the draft for the Jazz. Here’s why:

1. Depth of the 2025 Draft Class: While Flagg is the clear top prize, the 2025 draft features other high-upside prospects who could significantly impact the Jazz’s trajectory. Notable names include:

   • Dylan Harper (Rutgers, PG/SG): A 6’6” combo guard with playmaking ability, scoring prowess, and NBA lineage (son of Ron Harper). Harper could address the Jazz’s need for a star guard to orchestrate the offense, an area of uncertainty with George and Collier.

   • Ace Bailey (Rutgers, SF): A 6’10” wing with elite scoring and athleticism, offering positional versatility and star potential.

   • VJ Edgecombe (Baylor, SG/SF): A dynamic two-way wing with defensive tenacity and offensive upside.

   • Tre Johnson (Texas, SG): A prolific scorer who could fill the Jazz’s need for shot creation, though his defense is a question mark. These players, while not as polished as Flagg, have the potential to become cornerstone pieces, especially if the Jazz land a top-four pick (their worst-case scenario is No. 5).

2. Jazz’s Roster Fit and Needs: The Jazz need a player who can create offense and elevate their 21st-ranked offensive rating. While Flagg’s all-around game is ideal, Harper or Bailey could provide the primary scoring and playmaking the team lacks. For example, one contrarian perspective suggests the Jazz should prioritize Harper over Flagg, arguing that a dominant point guard is more critical to their offensive woes, and they could trade down from No. 1 to acquire additional assets while still drafting Harper.

3. Lottery Odds and Realism: The Jazz’s 14% chance at No. 1 translates to an 86% chance of picking outside the top spot. Since the NBA’s lottery odds flattened in 2019, the worst record has only secured the No. 1 pick once in six years, suggesting the Jazz are more likely to land at No. 2-5. Historical context shows Utah has never won the top pick, adding to the likelihood of missing Flagg. Planning for this scenario is prudent, and the Jazz’s front office, led by Danny Ainge, is known for maximizing value regardless of draft position.

4. Consolation Prizes and Sleepers: Even if the Jazz slip to No. 5, players like Kon Knueppel (Duke, SG/SF) or Egor Demin (BYU, PG/SF) could be valuable additions. Demin, a 6’9” playmaker, is a local product with elite passing and versatility, potentially available at Utah’s second first-round pick (via Minnesota). Sleeper prospects like Noa Essengue or Drake Powell could also emerge as high-upside selections, offering long-term potential if the Jazz miss the top tier.

5. Risk of Overhyping Flagg: While Flagg is a generational prospect, no draft pick is a guaranteed success. His offensive creation needs development, and the pressure of being a small-market savior could be immense.

   
   

In Summary

Jazz must “hit home run” but not necessarily with Flagg—aligns with a balanced view of the draft’s stakes. The 2025 draft is make-or-break not because of Flagg alone but because it’s Utah’s best chance in years to land a top-tier talent in a draft class with multiple potential stars. Missing the No. 1 pick would be disappointing but not catastrophic, given the depth of talent and the Jazz’s additional draft capital. A player like Harper or Bailey could address specific needs (e.g., guard play or wing scoring) while still offering All-Star potential. Moreover, Ainge’s history of bold moves suggests the Jazz could leverage a high pick in a trade to acquire a proven star, further mitigating the risk of missing Flagg.

The draft’s success hinges on selecting a player who fits Utah’s long-term vision and complements their core. Flagg is the safest bet for impact, but the gap between him and the next tier (Harper, Bailey, Edgecombe) is not as wide as, say, Victor Wembanyama’s was in 2023. The Jazz’s rebuild won’t collapse without Flagg, especially if they nail their pick and continue developing their young roster.

Conclusion

The 2025 NBA Draft is vital for the Utah Jazz to accelerate their rebuild and establish a new franchise cornerstone. While Cooper Flagg represents the ideal outcome, missing the No. 1 pick is not a bust due to the draft’s depth and the Jazz’s ability to find value at picks 2-5 or through trades. Prospects like Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey, or VJ Edgecombe could still transform the roster, addressing key needs and maintaining optimism for the future. The Jazz’s success depends on smart selection and development, not solely on winning the Flagg sweepstakes.